I know many of you don't want to hear my negative take on the data today, but try to view it as dispassionately as you can as it is likely important for many of you to hear it. The PR was not good. Perhaps the most telling thing was the company stating that this data will help them recruit for the mono trial, but notice they did not say this would position the company nicely for filing a BLA on combo therapy. The letters BLA did not show up anywhere in the press release. That omission tells you all you need to know. The low "p" value also tells you that there may have actually been many non-responders. The fact that there was so little additional info released suggests this as well. If the data was very good, they would have told us all about it.
The stock price fall seems to confirm these suspicions. The big dollar raise a few days ago may also indicate the company knew bad data was likely as they would have waited for the warrant conversion money to come in if they thought the data would be good rather than raise before bad data was released. The lack of a celebratory conference call tells you a lot as well.
There will likely not be any combo BLA. Revenues and profits are a long ways off for CYDY and there is a lot more money that is going to be needed to raised to get to a point of success with the mono trial. That was always the case, but is even more so now. I can't imagine how many shares outstanding there will eventually be.
The folks that bought stock the other day may be calling their lawyers right now, although they likely don't have a case.
I hope I am wrong but I fear I am right. If you are long this stock, you need to think about this perspective. If you can get the company to answer direct questions about the trial, that would be best. But based on what was released today, the road to success just got steeper and longer. The $9 million raised this week is not going to go too far either and a financial crisis could be on the near term horizon. Surely, the Paulsen clients are tapped out, the story the company would use to sell hope in the future is not there right now and big pharma is not going to come to the rescue based on sub-optimal combo trial results.
